Redrawing the Electoral Map in 2008

In order for Democrat Barack Obama to defeat Republican John McCain for president on Nov. 4, 2008, Obama will have to redraw the electoral map from 2004. When John Kerry lost to George W. Bush in that year, the map looked like this:



Says Wikipedia, "President George W. Bush won the popular vote in 31 states (denoted in red) with 286 electoral votes. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts won the popular vote in 19 states and the District of Columbia (denoted in blue) and 251 electoral votes." One maverick elector in Minnesota voted for John Edwards. Bush won by just 35 electoral votes; if Ohio had gone the other way with its 20 votes, Kerry would be president today.

Obama needs to (a) hold on to virtually all of Kerry's blue states, including Michigan (17 electoral votes), which looks dicey for him; and (b) pick up some of the Bush red states. If he picks up Florida (27 electoral votes) he could even lose, say, New Hampshire (4 votes) and wind up with 274 votes, enough to win.

Florida could thus be crucial to Obama, says Dan Balz's article Obama Hopes to Reverse Party Fortunes in Vote-Rich Fla. in today's Washington Post. Right now, most experts are giving the state to McCain by a hair. But, says Balz, Obama workers in Florida are "targeting 600,000 African Americans who are registered to vote but who do not regularly turn out on Election Day."

It will be a shock to oldstyleliberal if Obama's people can't flip Florida, with that many potential supporters to be brought off the sidelines!


At any rate, you can keep up to date on how the potential electoral vote stacks up in 2008 by visiting Electoral-vote.com. As of today, Sept. 27, the electoral map, based on independent polling results, shows Obama losing no Kerry 2004 states and looking to pick up Iowa (7 votes) and New Mexico (5 votes), which Bush won last time. Plus, Obama has razor-thin leads in former Bush states Virginia (13 votes) and Colorado (9 votes). If Obama flips all four of those states, he'll wind up winning 286 electoral votes, where 270 are needed to win.

That puts Obama currently at +16. If he can't flip Florida, and this map right now shows him not doing so, then he needs at least one of the two razor-thin, potentially "new blue" states, Virginia or Colorado. He also needs to hold onto "old blue" Kerry states like Minnesota (10 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes) where his lead is currently tiny.