Vote!

My purpose in this post is to convince you to go ahead and vote in the 2016 presidential election. Don't not vote because you don't like either major candidate particularly well.

I'm assuming you prefer one of the two major-party candidates, either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, even if the candidate you prefer doesn't thrill you.

Since I'm an "old-style liberal," I prefer Hillary Clinton. I don't love her, but I prefer her. Yet what I'm saying here applies just as well if you happen to prefer Donald Trump.

The reason is that this election is going to be close. As of today — the Thursday before Election Day, which is Tuesday, November 8 — the polls are showing a virtual tie. The Real Clear Politics average of several national polls is (as of this date; it could change over the next few days) showing Clinton with a 1.7 percentage point lead. Most polls have a margin of error of at least 3 percentage points, so +1.7 points is basically a dead heat.

Electoral votes

The election will be won by whichever candidate gets at least 270 votes in the Electoral College — whether or not he or she wins the nationwide popular vote. Votes in the Electoral College are awarded state by state. Each state gets a certain number of electoral votes. That number depends on the population of the state. The more populous states get more electoral votes than the less populous states.

We had close elections in 2000 and 2004. In 2000, George W. Bush won the electoral vote over Al Gore when the populous state of Florida went very narrowly for him — in a contested statewide result that went all the way to the Supreme Court — even though Gore won the national popular vote.

In 2004, the Republican Bush won again, this time over the Democrat John Kerry, in an election that came down to the winner of the extremely populous state of Ohio: Bush.

Who will determine the next president?

When elections are that close, it's the people who don't show up and vote that can determine the outcome. Or, voters who don't vote for one of the two major-party candidates; in 2000, third-party candidate Ralph Nader took enough votes from Gore in Florida to tip the election to Bush.

If you live in a very populous state that is also quite close in statewide pre-election polls, your state can swing the way you don't want it to if you and just a few other people with the same candidate preference don't express your preference in the voting booth. That can tip the entire election!

If you live in a state with a smaller population, but one that is close in the polls, your absence might likewise tip the entire election. It's not as likely that this year's election (or any year's) will pivot on a smaller state, but it's not impossible.

So vote!


P.S. If your state has "early voting," you can avoid Election Day lines by taking advantage of it. If you are eligible to vote but haven't registered, your state may permit "same day registration" that will still allow you to vote.