This front-page article in today's Washington Post says there are usually huge numbers of "nonvoters" in America's midterm elections. This year, those who don't show up to vote may be deciding America's future, for better or for worse.
If you are reading this, you may already know I'm in favor of liberal Democrats. You may not feel the same way. That's OK! I still urge you to go vote!
You may feel put off by the way politics is being conducted these days, with both sides treating opponents as if they were in league with the devil. I agree! All the poisonous hatefulness in politics today is truly ugly! And you know what? It's happening because every politician is anxious to draw maximum support from his or her "base." That's because anyone who is outside one of the two parties' political "bases" may not even vote at all. So why even try to appeal to him or her?
Pardon my French, but this kind of polarization sucks!
And if ugly political polarization is one of the reasons you don't feel inclined to vote, your not going to the polls on Election Day today is actually going to accentuate the ugly polarization!
Depending on where you live in the United States, your vote actually could make a big difference as to who wins certain races. This is so even though a great many nonvoters will tell you they believe their vote makes no difference at all!
This year there are 35 seats in the U.S. Senate up for grabs. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website says there's a one-in-five chance that the Democrats will win control of the Senate:
That is, there's a one-in-five chance that this year's election will wind up putting a total of at least 51 Democrats in the 100-member U.S. Senate next year. Right now, the Democrats (including the two Independent senators who "caucus" with them) have 49 seats, and the Republicans are in the majority at 51 seats.
So expert forecaster Nate Silver is predicting that there is a one-in-five chance that the Democrats will pick up a net gain of at least two Senate seats, and thereby win control of the Senate.
Mr. Silver believes there are two Senate races that are toss-ups — the one in Missouri and the one in Nevada:
In Missouri, incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, is pitted against Republican Josh Hawley in a super-tight race. In Nevada, incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller is pitted against Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen in another race that is super-tight.
Mr. Silver believes those two states are among the states that are most likely to decide which party controls the Senate next year:
Each of those two states — Nevada and Missouri — has over a 10-percent chance of being the "tipping point" which determines which party controls the U.S. Senate. In Nevada alone, the "voter power index" is the third largest of all the states', meaning there is a high "relative likelihood" that any particular individual voter in Nevada will determine the majority party in the Senate!
(And notice that the "voter power index" in top-ranked North Dakota is an ultra-high 26.3, meaning that North Dakotans' decisions whether or not to go to the polls today may have a huge impact on our country's future.)
If Nevada and Missouri both go for their Democratic Senate hopefuls, and if the Democrats hold onto their current leads in 25 other states, there would wind up being exactly 50 Democrats (including two Independents) in the Senate next year. There would be exactly 50 Republicans. The Senate would be evenly split. Vice President Pence, a Republican, would break any tie votes that occur.
To repeat: there is a pretty fair chance that the Senate could wind up being divided 50-50 next year, which means that any Senate vote that strictly follows party lines would have the tie broken by Vice President Pence.
So I'm saying that everything hangs in the balance today, Election Day 2018. Our political system is so close to being exactly evenly divided that America's so-called "nonvoters" who decide to actually go vote today may decide our country's future. So go vote!
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