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former Vice President Joe Biden, in a USA/Suffolk poll, has a sizable lead of 15 percentage points over his closest Democratic presidential rival. Biden's point total is 30 percentage points — i.e., 30 percent of polled Democrats said they would prefer Biden as their 2020 candidate against President Trump. Biden's two closest rivals are Senator Bernie Sanders, at 15 points, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 10 points. All the other Democrats have single-digit point scores.
In direct matchups between leading Democrats and Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2020 general election
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we find that Trump would lose to any of these five candidates: Biden (+10 points over Trump), Sanders (+9), Warren (+2), Senator Kamala Harris (+1), and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (+1). This poll was published by the pro-Trump FOX News organization on Sunday, June 16.
Looking back at "Real Clear Politics 2020 Presidential Polls, No. 1," posted on Tuesday, May 07, 2019, we find that as of this point the leading Democrats all surpass Trump, whereas in the earlier post Trump had a 1-point lead over Warren while losing to Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, or then-very-popular Texas former-Representative Beto O'Rourke. This indicates that Trump has lost a lot of ground in general and that Warren has gained quite a bit of ground in the last month or so. Meanwhile, O'Rourke seems to have lost most of his earlier popularity.
Here's an overall look at the state of affairs among Democratic hopefuls:
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On the above graph, Biden (the green line at the top) still leads all the other candidates, but his lead has fallen since the beginning of May. Second is still Sanders (blue line), but his support has also dropped since May. The only candidate to show much of a gain is Warren (brown line), whose following has jumped up in the month of June. Buttigieg (purple line) has also shown a bit of an increase in June. Harris (orange line) has lost some support recently. All of the other candidates remain stuck in the low-to-middle single digits.
The top 20 Democratic candidates will engage in two televised debates on June 26 and 27. The lineups:
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Expect changes in their relative positions in the polls afterwards ...
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